In a Joint Operating Environment report from the U.S. Joint Forces Command, the U.S. military has warned that surplus oil-production capacity could disappear within two years and there could be serious shortages by 2015. Such a situation would have significant economic and political impacts, the study indicated. “By 2012, surplus oil-production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day,” the report stated. “While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds,” the study continued. “Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the path toward collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both China and India.” The U.S. military said its views cannot be taken as U.S. government policy, but admitted they are meant to provide the Joint Forces with “an intellectual foundation upon which we will construct the concept to guide out future, force developments.”

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