New world disorder

There is a global, or geopolitical fragmenting: while the United States-China competition will remain an important dynamic, there is growing multipolarity as relative power is shifting to a wider range of countries which are becoming more active and opportunistic, like Turkey and Saudi Arabia. This reflects longer term trends, like the notion of ‘Bigger Yards and Higher Fences’ — nativism is on the rise in many countries which are turning inwards amidst populism and protectionism. On-shoring, resource nationalism and border control will shape immigration, trade and industrial policies. The world is also becoming ‘blocced up,’ and organizations will need to navigate shifting alliances and new partnerships. NATO’s future is uncertain, the Sahelian countries have withdrawn from ECOWAS, and emerging ‘blocs’ like BRICS+, AUKUS, and the QUAD are gaining relevance. 

In 2025 emerging ‘rogue actors’ will operate with more impunity. The UN Security Council is trapped by the vetoes of the P5 members; sanctioned countries like Iran subvert these through new trade and financial links; and civil wars in Myanmar, Libya and Sudan endure as outsiders support their local proxies. Also, non-state actors like militias and mercenaries have growing freedom of action to disrupt trade, civilian aviation and local security. These actors will increasingly shape the new world disorder, and risk managers with finite sources and capabilities will need to monitor a greater number, range and variety of threat actors. For decision-makers, previously stable locations for investment, trade, and assignments are now more vulnerable in this changing international landscape.

Home fronts

Countries are fragmenting internally, too — geographically, ethnically and ideologically, and this will happen more in 2025. Established political parties on the left and right are in systemic decline and steadily losing primary vote shares — from Australia to the UK, France to Japan — to insurgent candidates and parties across the political spectrum. There is also the ‘blowback,’ where politicians and populations push back against the apparent costs of the energy transition and where foreign policies like on Israel-Palestine blow back home in the form of protests. All politics may be local, but so is all risk management, and acute social and political issues make it more difficult and sensitive for organizations to reduce and avoid risks for their local staff in their own countries. 

Conflict, connections & confusion

‘Conflict, Connections and Confusion’ amplify the friction, uncertainty, chaos and danger of a fragmenting world. Firstly there is ‘conflict’ between and within countries for influence, resources and opportunity. Climate change amplifies the impacts of human conflict by accelerating internal migration and refugee flows, and competition for apparently or actually scarce resources make immigration seem existential. There is generational conflict within countries, especially for opportunities in kleptocracies or autocracies with a combination of ageing leadership and young and educated but unemployed populations as we saw in Kenya and Nigeria.

Secondly, new or changing ‘connections’ are being generated by, or happening during, a fragmenting world. There are new relationships with the opening of Saudi Arabia to major foreign direct investment and the deployment of North Korean troops to Ukraine. There are real commercial opportunities, however nefarious actors exploit new connections, like in the Pacific where Fiji and Tonga are used by drug cartels as pathways.

Lastly, there is ‘confusion’ driven by the rise of synthetic reporting. AI amplifies the apparent authenticity, volume and sophistication of both accidentally and deliberately erroneous misinformation, which amplify other risks as problematic online material is prompting or accelerating real-world violence. At the country level ideological differences are amplified by a fragmented consumption of news. Organizations with staff across different generations, locations and political orientations increasingly have staff living in different information environments. It will be important to understand how your workforce accesses and consumes information — ask, ‘what are the sources and pathways for misinformation and disinformation to spread amongst my people?’

Business resilience

In 2025, organizations will be more vulnerable to the second and third order effects of seemingly esoteric, distant or unrelated phenomena. Those who don’t systematically track local risks and analyze emerging scenarios will miss key signals in an increasingly complex world, making them too slow to detect indicators of risks and less able to capitalize on fleeting opportunities. Intelligence and response capabilities must be better integrated, though this will be harder for risk teams facing budget and staffing constraints.

For security professionals, the message is clear: the landscape is more complex, but with the right tools and strategies, it is possible to treat risks and seize opportunities. Technology will help identify incidents, deliver personalized risk information, and support the fieldwork, local knowledge, and analysis of risk professionals. The most resilient organizations in a fragmenting world in 2025 will combine advanced technology with ‘human-in-the-loop’ strategies for better decision-making.