The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) states that between June and August, there is an 80% chance of an El Nino event developing, with a 90% chance of it lasting until November at least. 

The El Nino phenomenon occurs every two to seven years as lessening trade winds cause warmer waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean. This results in: 

• Global increase in temperature 
• Affected hurricane formation 
• Disrupted rainfall (drought, heavy rain, etc.) 

According to a report from Reuters, this year’s forecast is causing concern for two primary reasons. Firstly, while there is still uncertainty around the strength of the El Nino, some models predict it will be stronger than usual. Second, experts are concerned that climate change may bolster the affects of El Nino, emphasizing temperature increases and intensifying heatwaves, rains, droughts, and other resulting disasters (such as fires and floods). 

Due to the combination of climate change and El Nino, the WMO has warned that 2027 may be the hottest year since records started. The previous El Nino year (2024) currently holds the record. 

In the event this prediction proves true, how can security leaders ensure they are prepared? 

Mitigate Coordination Challenges 

One step security leaders can take is to implement effective, seamless communication. Siloes are a challenge for any organization, but in the midst of climate disasters, these communication breakdowns can impede risk mitigation, response, and recovery.  

Secure Backups 

How many organizations have integrated cybersecurity into their climate disaster recovery plans? If that step hasn’t been taken, the time to do so is now. 

Opportunistic threat actors will seek to leverage natural disasters, and therefore a multi-layered cybersecurity plan is essential for resilience. This includes implementing an immutable backup strategy, meaning malicious actors cannot alter or delete the data. 

Predicting El Nino

Every El Nino behaves differently. Effects vary across the globe. Therefore, it is challenging to predict how this year’s forecast will carry out. 

That means security leaders should be prepared for anything. Pay attention to the weather forecasts and assess your organization’s risk ahead of time. Putting a plan in place for climate disasters can help to protect property, assets, and most importantly, people.