As Joe Biden takes office, Justin Crump – CEO of the global risk and intelligence consultancy Sibylline, takes stock of the challenges the new administration will face and a reminder that we all need to think widely and openly about possibilities in a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous world.

COVID-19 has accelerated a variety of global trends. Some of these are perhaps ultimately good, for example moves towards more investment in AI and automation, or a growing focus on taking this opportunity to making lasting changes to benefit the environment. Many others are, however, quite concerning. Continued threats to the global order, the likelihood of states testing the resolve of the new U.S. administration, and increasingly polarized populations are all factors that will dominate 2021.