The research team at Colorado State University is now forecasting 20 named storms for this hurricane season.
In addition, the researchers say that changes in convective precipitation over the Sahel region has been shown to impact zonal winds in the upper-troposphere, which in turn modulate vertical wind shear over the Main Development Region and influence the conditions of cyclogenesis over the tropical Atlantic. Years with higher Sahel rainfall tend to be associated with more active hurricane seasons, the researchers said .
Last, dust outbreaks from West Africa impact tropical cyclone activity by reducing Atlantic tropical sea surface temperatures ahead of the hurricane season. Episodes of dust outbreak are also associated with extremely dry air coming from the Sahara, another factor detrimental to cyclone formation.