- China’s loss to GDP in 2020 is estimated at $1.6 trillion.
- In the United States, the figure is $1.7 trillion.
- Japan’s estimated loss to GDP is $549 billion.
- In India loss to GDP in 2020 is estimated at $567 billion.
“Our scenarios show that even a contained outbreak could significantly impact the global economy in the short run,” said Professor McKibbin. “In the case where Covid-19 develops into a global pandemic, our results suggest that the cost can escalate quickly. Even in the best-case scenario of a low-severity impact, the economic fallout is going to be enormous and countries need to work together to limit the potential damage as much as possible. This is particularly the case when it comes to the potential loss of life.”
The research aims to provide guidance to policymakers for how best to respond to the economic impact of Covid-19. “Our study shows the possible costs that can be avoided through global cooperative investment in public health in all countries,” said Professor McKibbin. “There needs to be vastly more investment in public health and development, especially in the poorest countries. All major countries need to participate actively. It is too late to attempt to close borders once the disease has taken hold in many other countries and a global pandemic has started.”