Risk Assessment: The View from Ten Miles above your Enterprise
Jack Jarmon, PhD, University of Pennsylvania professor and the coordinator of the symposium, brought an outstanding group of participants to the program including Steve Flynn, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations to moderate the program and give a compelling overview on national security and tough challenges.
Flynn mentioned that risk issues today are inherently multi-jurisdictional and multi-disciplinary, meaning the most important risks are ignored because no one entity owns them or is directly impacted by them. We have serious U.S. challenges with the change in administration.
"During the past seven years our strategy has been to address enemies overseas. Now the goal is security within the U.S. That requires infrastructure. But DHS is being tasked to avoid big government through synergies with existing agencies. DHS has over 30 government departments that have specific DHS tasks to execute, such as the Coast Guard and FBI. This is very hard to coordinate. Plus, DHS’ activity in 50 states and the territories creates issues about how to provide national security. Add in that 85 percent of our critical infrastructure is privately owned and you can understand the difficulty in answering: Were does DHS stop and private organizations start regarding security? There are many issues to work through," said Flynn.
- Brittleness of networks, infrastructure and social contracts. We rely on trust for our economy to work.
- Once we are exposed to bad things, people opt out of these systems, such as the financial network meltdown and making investments for loan availability.
- Our networks have to be secure and able to survive terror, disruption and attacks.
- The current economic situation does not bode well, should a terror attack occur.
- Major social issue: The perception that the government is not doing enough can fray our social contract, hampering our response.
"The U.S. is at a critical and opportunistic time for new administration to set a national security agenda that will move U.S. forward. Issues including terror, as well as climate change, need consideration when planning to secure the U.S. thereby enabling the economy to grow.
"The challenge is that DHS, U.S. businesses and international businesses require economic efficiencies that leave no room for error. Threats, as a result, can be far more disruptive in an environment of just in time inventory and thin supply chains," said Wales.
Wales continued, "Contaminated medicine made outside the U.S. can cause shortages, leading to deaths. A significant portion of our food supply is shipped by train through Kansas City. Disruption to those rail routes would cause massive food shortages within three days. These are the critical issues to get on the national agenda and build contingency plans."
Wales pointed to a recent episode: "Look at what happened to Ericsson Phones. They made their chips in Mexico and a lightning strike shut down their factory. Without a back up manufacturing plan, they went offline, lost billions and were forced to sell themselves to Sony. What if that was a supplier directly tied to our national security?
"We need to bring together the public and private sectors to discuss how to use risk analysis and better allocate resources to mitigate those risks. We need to tackle vs. ignore the biggest issues," said Wales.
Robert Strayer is the Republican Director, U.S. Senate Committee for Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. He pointed out the challenge that organizations are being asked to both share information across public and private entities to break down silos and provide more effective communication. While at the same time more information is being classified to prevent against threats and not being shared. It’s a challenge to manage effectively in this situation.