Security Magazine logo
search
cart
facebook twitter linkedin youtube
  • Sign In
  • Create Account
  • Sign Out
  • My Account
Security Magazine logo
  • NEWS
    • Security Newswire
    • Technologies & Solutions
  • MANAGEMENT
    • Leadership Management
    • Enterprise Services
    • Security Education & Training
    • Logical Security
    • Security & Business Resilience
    • Profiles in Excellence
  • PHYSICAL
    • Access Management
    • Fire & Life Safety
    • Identity Management
    • Physical Security
    • Video Surveillance
    • Case Studies (Physical)
  • CYBER
    • Cybersecurity News
    • More
  • BLOG
  • COLUMNS
    • Cyber Tactics
    • Leadership & Management
    • Security Talk
    • Career Intelligence
    • Leader to Leader
    • Cybersecurity Education & Training
  • EXCLUSIVES
    • Annual Guarding Report
    • Most Influential People in Security
    • The Security Benchmark Report
    • Top Guard and Security Officer Companies
    • Top Cybersecurity Leaders
    • Women in Security
  • SECTORS
    • Arenas / Stadiums / Leagues / Entertainment
    • Banking/Finance/Insurance
    • Construction, Real Estate, Property Management
    • Education: K-12
    • Education: University
    • Government: Federal, State and Local
    • Hospitality & Casinos
    • Hospitals & Medical Centers
    • Infrastructure:Electric,Gas & Water
    • Ports: Sea, Land, & Air
    • Retail/Restaurants/Convenience
    • Transportation/Logistics/Supply Chain/Distribution/ Warehousing
  • EVENTS
    • Industry Events
    • Webinars
    • Solutions by Sector
    • Security 500 Conference
  • MEDIA
    • Videos
      • Cybersecurity & Geopolitical Discussion
      • Ask Me Anything (AMA) Series
    • Podcasts
    • Polls
    • Photo Galleries
  • MORE
    • Call for Entries
    • Classifieds & Job Listings
    • Continuing Education
    • Newsletter
    • Sponsor Insights
    • Store
    • White Papers
  • EMAG
    • eMagazine
    • This Month's Content
    • Advertise
  • SIGN UP!

Predictive Modeling

By Robert M. Figlio Ph.D.
March 1, 2007
Robert Figlio, Ph.D., is CEO of CAP Index, Inc., which is in crime forecasting.


Our actions, movements and decisions are all based on the summoning of past experiences from our memory. We then evaluate and integrate these experiences within a given context to estimate the likelihood of a set of outcomes that might result from any particular action. Essentially, people live their lives predicting the results of actions based on the evaluation of past experiences. These experiences are the “data” for the decision-making processes, and the evaluation of these experiences and outcomes is the “methodology” of our own individual “predictive modeling” process. For example, experience has taught us that it is very likely that if we touch a hot frying pan we shall burn our fingers.

Most events in life, have variable probabilities of occurring depending on the particular set of circumstances existent at the time of their happening. And our ability to predict what might happen in any particular situation is a function of our own experiential knowledge base in addition to these external factors. Thus, the limitations of our own experiences coupled with the lack of complete correspondence among events and outcomes limit the ability to predict what might happen in any given circumstance. What, then, can we do to reduce the uncertainty of future events?

The Predictive Risk Model can help alleviate unnecessary problems in many security aspects.

Predictive Modeling and Parking Facility Security

Security decision-making that makes business sense in the parking facility environment, or in any other security-relevant environment, requires the objective, valid and reliable assessment of the risks of property loss and personal injury in various scenarios and circumstances at any given site. This assessment should not be based on the personal experiences of the security manager, which is a subjective impression. Analysis of valid and accurately measured, reliable data will determine the best action to take. Similar kinds of incidents yield the same kinds information each time about security loss incidents and the neighborhood characteristics that produce crime risks at and around that site.

Incident-based and crime risk data then need to be related to the security measures that were in place at the site of the event. Then, these relationships between incident and security measures should be analyzed in a multivariate way, using statistical modeling techniques to determine how the property loss and personal injuries are affected by the security measures utilized. The replication of this process across sites and time produces the basis for the development of a predictive or “forecasting” model, upon which security resource allocation can be rationally implemented in a cost-effective, valid manner.

The Predictive Model

A predictive model in the parking facility security context is an equation or combination of equations which relate a set variables (predictor) to an outcome or set of outcomes with the probability of those outcomes specified by the model according to how tight the fit is among predictor and outcome variables in the collected data. These methods are well documented in the literature of statistical methods and are found under the general heading of “regression-based” techniques.  

SIDEBAR: Benefits of Predictive Modeling

Many business benefits can be realized through the use of these models for parking facility resource management:
  • Resource allocations decisions are based on valid and reliable data rather than upon subjectively based measures that depend solely upon the experiences of individuals (which are biased on a person-by-person basis).

  • Property and personal injury losses can be predicted with a statistically valid confidence bound.

  • The costs of security implementations can be balanced against the likelihoods of projected losses.

  • As a result, cost benefit decisions can be utilized in the security function of a business.

  • Contemporary business managers need data based budgets for fiscal planning from all divisions of the company, including security.

  • The effectiveness of security measures in reducing losses can be dramatically improved through the use of empirically based objective, evaluative techniques, which help determine security activities that reduce losses.

Share This Story

Looking for a reprint of this article?
From high-res PDFs to custom plaques, order your copy today!

Robert Figlio, Ph.D., is CEO of CAP Index, Inc. Dr. Figlio is a consultant to industry and government agencies on crime and security matters and a noted criminologist who has published numerous books and articles on the subject of crime and crime prevention. He can be reached at RFiglio@capindex.com, or 610-903-3000.

Recommended Content

JOIN TODAY
To unlock your recommendations.

Already have an account? Sign In

  • Security's Top Cybersecurity Leaders 2024

    Security's Top Cybersecurity Leaders 2024

    Security magazine's Top Cybersecurity Leaders 2024 award...
    Cybersecurity
    By: Security Staff
  • cyber brain

    The intersection of cybersecurity and artificial intelligence

    Artificial intelligence (AI) is a valuable cybersecurity...
    Cybersecurity
    By: Pam Nigro
  • artificial intelligence AI graphic

    Assessing the pros and cons of AI for cybersecurity

    Artificial intelligence (AI) has significant implications...
    Cybersecurity
    By: Charles Denyer
Manage My Account
  • Security eNewsletter & Other eNews Alerts
  • eMagazine Subscriptions
  • Manage My Preferences
  • Online Registration
  • Mobile App
  • Subscription Customer Service

More Videos

Sponsored Content

Sponsored Content is a special paid section where industry companies provide high quality, objective, non-commercial content around topics of interest to the Security audience. All Sponsored Content is supplied by the advertising company and any opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily reflect the views of Security or its parent company, BNP Media. Interested in participating in our Sponsored Content section? Contact your local rep!

close
  • Sureview screen
    Sponsored bySureView Systems

    The Evolution of Automation in the Command Center

  • Crisis Response Team
    Sponsored byEverbridge

    Automate or Fall Behind – Crisis Response at the Speed of Risk

  • Perimeter security
    Sponsored byAMAROK

    Why Property Security is the New Competitive Advantage

Popular Stories

Rendered computer with keyboard

16B Login Credentials Exposed in World’s Largest Data Breach

Verizon on phone screen

61M Records Listed for Sale Online, Allegedly Belong to Verizon

Security’s 2025 Women in Security

Security’s 2025 Women in Security

blurry multicolored text on black screen

PowerSchool Education Technology Company Announces Data Breach

Half closed laptop

Sudo Vulnerability Discovered, May Exposes Linux Systems

Events

August 7, 2025

Threats to the Energy Sector: Implications for Corporate and National Security

The energy sector has found itself in the crosshairs of virtually every bad actor on the global stage.

August 27, 2025

Risk Mitigation as a Competitive Edge

In today’s volatile environment, a robust risk management strategy isn’t just a requirement—it’s a foundation for organizational resilience. From cyber threats to climate disruptions, the ability to anticipate, withstand, and adapt to disruption is becoming a hallmark of industry leaders.

View All Submit An Event

Products

Security Culture: A How-to Guide for Improving Security Culture and Dealing with People Risk in Your Organisation

Security Culture: A How-to Guide for Improving Security Culture and Dealing with People Risk in Your Organisation

See More Products

Related Articles

  • SEC0521-ProdSpot-slide16_900px

    Helps to Enable Predictive Outcomes in Real Time

    See More
  • Tornado touching down on farm

    The evolving disaster preparedness landscape: AI, ML and data modeling

    See More
  • 3-D Modeling Expected to Improve Facial Recognition Technology

    See More
×

Sign-up to receive top management & result-driven techniques in the industry.

Join over 20,000+ industry leaders who receive our premium content.

SIGN UP TODAY!
  • RESOURCES
    • Advertise
    • Contact Us
    • Store
    • Want More
  • SIGN UP TODAY
    • Create Account
    • eMagazine
    • eNewsletter
    • Customer Service
    • Manage Preferences
  • SERVICES
    • Marketing Services
    • Reprints
    • Market Research
    • List Rental
    • Survey/Respondent Access
  • STAY CONNECTED
    • LinkedIn
    • Facebook
    • YouTube
    • X (Twitter)
  • PRIVACY
    • PRIVACY POLICY
    • TERMS & CONDITIONS
    • DO NOT SELL MY PERSONAL INFORMATION
    • PRIVACY REQUEST
    • ACCESSIBILITY

Copyright ©2025. All Rights Reserved BNP Media.

Design, CMS, Hosting & Web Development :: ePublishing