New report on Peak Hour Travel on public transportation to aid security planning
The authors of a new study by the Mineta Transportation Institute hope their findings will assist those responsible for security planning around travel on public transport. In their latest Peak Hour Study, Brian Michael Jenkins and Bruce R Butterworth analyzed more than 500 attacks on passenger rail and bus systems in modern developed countries between 1970 and 2020. They found that more than 60% of the attacks occurred in off-peak hours, as opposed to only 19% occurring during peak hours. However, the peak-hour attacks were 4.5 times more lethal. (The timing of the remaining attacks is unknown so they could not make a determination.)
Brian explained, “It seems logical that terrorists seeking to cause maximum disruption or mass casualties would launch their attacks during times of day when passenger traffic is at its height. Right-wing extremists and jihadists are the most lethal attackers, even without considering the five attacks that killed so many, such as Bologna in 1980, Madrid in 2004 and London in 2005. If we include those attacks, peak hours become 34 times more lethal than non-peak hours. However, some attackers - left-wing groups and Basque separatists, for example - have avoided large-scale casualties and have generally carried out their attacks during off-peak hours, often at night to avoid detection. Although the Provisional Wing of the Irish Republican Army (PIRA) was capable of carrying out deadly attacks, PIRA bombings of transportation systems, were aimed primarily at disruption.”