A new analysis by the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University School of Law found that in the 30 largest cities, crime rates are on track to decline 5.5 percent in 2015.

While crime rates are down, the 2015 murder rate has gone up — it’s projected to increase 14.6 percent from last year. Regarding the surge, the Brennan Center said: “In absolute terms, murder rates are so low that a small numerical increase leads to a large percentage change. Even with the 2015 increase, murder rates are roughly the same as they were in 2012. Since murder rates vary widely from year to year, one year’s increase is not evidence of a coming wave of violent crime,” the Center wrote in a post analyzing the data.