Cyber deterrence is designed to impose cost, risk, and uncertainty in ways that alter a threat actor’s risk-benefit and disrupt their operations — especially early in the attack chain, where access becomes control and persistence. This makes it harder and increasingly unlikely for threat actors to achieve meaningful strategic value.
A threat actor’s risk-benefit is the decision on whether the expected payoff of a cyber operation outweighs the cost, risk, likelihood of exposure or attribution, potential consequences, and probability of failure. Effective cyber deterrence works by shifting that balance decisively in favor of cyber defenders.
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