The world has changed. Two years ago, when Russia invaded Ukraine, that change became front-page news. The war on Europe’s Eastern flank is simply one symptom of a larger geopolitical reality. Other symptoms — additional wars and conflicts — have already erupted and will continue to emerge as a result of the changing world order. A look back at the last two years of war in Ukraine serves as a stark reminder of the urgent need for business leaders to plan ahead in an increasingly unstable world.

America has grown less interested in using its resources to enforce the world order that it helped establish. For instance, as the American presence in Iraq and Afghanistan extended over two decades, many Americans grew fatigued and distanced from the reasons we entered the region. Consequently, support for intervention in this and other overseas conflicts began to wane. America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 clearly sent this message to foreign leaders — and those who would seek to disrupt our world order saw an opportunity surface.